Average price versus median – how to read flat price statistics (2026)
Author: Tacjana MasiukiewiczMarket and prices~14 min read
The average flat price and the median are two different numbers, and they often differ by a few per cent. The average adds up all prices and divides them by the number of flats, so it is easily "pulled up" by expensive penthouses. The median is the middle value: half the flats are cheaper, half dearer. Below, on data from our offer in Warsaw and Wrocław, we show how much these measures differ, what the asking price and the transaction price are, and why reports by the NBP, GUS and portals quote different numbers.
Key facts
- In our Warsaw offer the arithmetic mean of the price per m² is 18,984 zł, the area-weighted mean 18,657 zł, and the median 18,000 zł (as of 27 September 2026).
- The average price of a flat in Warsaw (987 thousand zł) is 16% higher than the median (853 thousand zł) – as many as 64% of flats cost less than the "average".
- According to the NBP, in Q2 2026 the average asking price on the primary market in Warsaw was 10.2% higher than the transaction price, in Wrocław 8.8%.
- GUS does not give a price per m², only a price change index: in Q1 2026 prices of units in Poland rose by 6.0% year on year.
- A change in the structure of the offer (more flats in cheaper districts) can lower the average by a few to a dozen or so per cent, though no flat became cheaper.
The mean, the median and the weighted mean – how do they differ?
Take five flats priced at 12,000, 13,000, 14,000, 15,000 and 30,000 zł/m². The arithmetic mean is the sum divided by 5, that is 16,800 zł/m². The median is the middle value after ordering – 14,000 zł/m². One expensive flat raised the mean by 2,800 zł/m² and did not move the median. That is why the median describes the "typical" flat better, and the mean the whole market together with its expensive end.
There is also the area-weighted mean: the sum of the prices of all flats divided by the sum of their metres. An example: a studio of 30 m² at 25,000 zł/m² (750,000 zł) and a flat of 90 m² at 15,000 zł/m² (1,350,000 zł). The arithmetic mean of the prices per m² is 20,000 zł, but the weighted one is 2,100,000 zł ÷ 120 m² = 17,500 zł/m². Large flats carry more weight, and because they usually have a lower price per metre, the weighted mean comes out lower than the ordinary one. The NBP also works with weights: it weights the prices for groups of cities by the share of flats in the market stock, and for Warsaw alone gives the average price.
What does it look like on real data? We calculated all the available flats with a disclosed price in our catalogue (according to data from the TM Invest offer, as of 27 September 2026).
| Measure | Warsaw | Wrocław |
|---|---|---|
| Number of available flats | 2,237 | 2,114 |
| Arithmetic mean of the price per m² | 18,984 | 16,124 |
| Area-weighted mean (sum of prices ÷ sum of m²) | 18,657 | 15,994 |
| Median of the price per m² | 18,000 | 15,736 |
| The cheapest 10% below / the dearest 10% above | 13,523 / 28,000 | 12,290 / 21,092 |
| Average price of a flat | 987,064 | 845,369 |
| Median price of a flat | 853,000 | 759,682 |
| Average / median area | 52.9 / 46.2 m² | 52.9 / 51.5 m² |
In both cities the order is the same: mean > weighted mean > median. The differences in the price per m² are moderate (2.5–5.5%), but in the price of the whole flat they rise to 11–16%, because here both the higher price per metre and the larger area of penthouses overlap. If you read that "the average flat in Warsaw costs almost a million", remember that in our offer 64% of flats are cheaper than that average, and in Wrocław 62%. You will find detailed prices by district in the articles new flat prices in Warsaw 2026 and flat prices in Wrocław 2026.
How one estate changes the average – the effect of outliers
In Warsaw the dearest metres in our offer are in Śródmieście – in the development Apartamenty Grzybowska 11 etap I the median is 33,700 zł/m². In Wilanów, in turn, very large units dominate (a median area of 138 m², an average price of about 2.35 million zł). What happens if we remove them?
| Variant (Warsaw) | Mean per m² | Median per m² | Average price | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All flats (2,237) | 18,984 | 18,000 | 987,064 | 853,000 |
| Without Śródmieście (−78 units) | 18,458 (−2.8%) | 17,750 (−1.4%) | 980,375 (−0.7%) | 839,490 (−1.6%) |
| Without Wilanów (−69 units) | 18,922 (−0.3%) | 17,900 (−0.6%) | 943,687 (−4.4%) | 842,072 (−1.3%) |
| Without both districts | 18,377 (−3.2%) | 17,658 (−1.9%) | 935,158 (−5.3%) | 828,826 (−2.8%) |
There are two conclusions. First, the mean reacts to extreme values more strongly than the median: the 78 flats from Śródmieście (3.5% of the offer) shift the average price per metre by 2.8%, and the median by half as much. Second, what counts is what is an "outlier". Śródmieście pushes up the price per m², but the flats there are small, so they hardly change the average price of a unit. Wilanów works the other way round: the price per metre is close to average, but the huge areas raise the average price of a flat by 4.4%.
In Wrocław a similar role is played by the development Sudea in Krzyki – 55 flats (2.6% of the offer), the dearest of which exceed 190 m² and cost over 6 million zł. Without it the average price of a flat in the city falls from 845,369 zł to 820,235 zł (−3.0%), and the median only from 759,682 zł to 754,596 zł (−0.7%). The weighted mean price per m² falls by 2.0% – more than the ordinary mean (−1.1%), because large units carry more weight in it.
Looking for a flat in a specific budget and do not want to dig through statistics? We will help you choose a flat from a developer – we will compare the prices per m² in selected developments and show what you can really buy for your amount. For the buyer most often without a commission – the fee is usually paid by the developer.
The price per metre – how to calculate it and what to compare
The price per m² is the price of the unit divided by its usable floor area. A flat of 45 m² for 720,000 zł costs 16,000 zł/m². Since 11 July 2025 a developer must publish on its website the price per m² of usable floor area of every unit offered, separately the price of ancillary premises (e.g. storage units) and rights needed to use the unit if they are not included, and other monetary charges – everything including VAT (art. 19a of the Developer Act). These data go once a day to the public data portal (art. 19b).
When comparing offers calculate the effective price per metre, that is everything you will pay the developer divided by the area of the flat. For example: if with a 45 m² flat for 720,000 zł you have to buy a parking space for 60,000 zł (an example amount), you pay 780,000 zł, that is 17,333 zł per metre of flat – 8% more than the price list suggests.
The second trap is the area. Smaller flats have a higher price per m², because the costs of the kitchen, bathroom and installations are spread over fewer metres. In our Warsaw offer the median for studios is 24,501 zł/m², for 2-room flats 18,600 zł and for 3-room flats 16,241 zł. In Wrocław respectively 17,782, 16,000 and 14,572 zł/m². So compare the price per metre of flats of a similar size – we show real amounts for 30, 40 and 50 m² in the article How much a flat costs in Warsaw.
The asking price versus the transaction price – what is the difference according to the NBP?
The asking price is the amount from the price list or advert. The transaction price is the amount from the contract. The NBP in its Real Estate Market Database (BaRN) collects both series separately for the primary and secondary markets. Data for Q2 2026:
| Market (Q2 2026) | Asking price | Transaction price | The asking price is higher by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw – primary market | 18,488 per m² | 16,783 per m² | 10.2% |
| Wrocław – primary market | 15,575 per m² | 14,312 per m² | 8.8% |
| Warsaw – secondary market | 19,059 per m² | 16,723 per m² | 14.0% |
| Wrocław – secondary market | 13,529 per m² | 12,590 per m² | 7.5% |
An important caveat: this is not a "discount" you will get in negotiations. The average asking and transaction prices relate to different sets of flats – dearer and worse-priced units stay longer on offer, while those attractively priced sell faster. Part of the difference is therefore an effect of structure, not a reduction on a specific flat. For comparison: the median asking price in our offer is 18,000 zł/m² in Warsaw and 15,736 zł/m² in Wrocław, a level close to the NBP's average asking prices for the primary market.
Why do price reports differ? The NBP, GUS, portals and RCN
When one headline speaks of a fall in prices and another of a rise, both are usually true – they measure different things:
| Source | What it measures | What to watch out for |
|---|---|---|
| NBP (BaRN) | Average asking and transaction prices per m², primary and secondary market, Warsaw and other big cities, every quarter | For groups of cities prices are weighted by stock; secondary data are sometimes revised backwards |
| GUS – residential property price indices | A price change index (e.g. 106.0 = +6%), the country and voivodeships, primary and secondary market | No price in zł/m² and no data for cities; published about 3 months after the quarter |
| Advert portals and firms' reports | Asking prices from adverts, often averages or medians for the month | Offers only; different scope and methods, duplicate adverts |
| RCN (the Real Estate Price Register) | Prices from notarial deeds of specific units | Individual transactions – you have to choose comparable ones yourself |
| Developers' price lists / dane.gov.pl | Current asking prices of specific units | An asking price, not a transaction price; changes from day to day |
In Q1 2026 GUS recorded a rise in residential property prices of 6.0% year on year (primary market +6.8%, secondary +5.2%), in the Mazovian voivodeship 6.8%, in the Lower Silesian 4.0%. When calculating the index for 2026 GUS gives the primary market a weight of 45.6%, and the secondary 54.4%. These are data for voivodeships, so do not compare them directly with the NBP's prices for cities. How to combine these sources when assessing the direction of the market we show in the articles Will home prices fall? (in Polish) and Flat price forecast. If you value your own flat on the basis of transactions from the RCN, look at the guide How much is my flat worth (in Polish).
The structure effect – the average falls though nothing became cheaper
The most common mistake in reading statistics is comparing averages from two periods without checking what was in the offer. Take two districts from our offer: Białołęka (a median of 14,122 zł/m²) and Mokotów (22,900 zł/m²). Suppose prices in both districts do not change and only the share of flats in the offer changes.
| Scenario | Share of Białołęka / Mokotów | The "average" price per m² | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter 1 | 50% / 50% | 18,511 | – |
| Quarter 2 – more cheap flats | 70% / 30% | 16,755 | −9.5% |
| Quarter 2 – more expensive flats | 30% / 70% | 20,267 | +9.5% |
The statistic shows a "fall in prices of 9.5%", though no developer has cut its price list. On our data: if Białołęka (609 flats) disappeared from the Warsaw offer, the median price per m² would rise from 18,000 to 19,079 zł, that is by 6%. That is why for the secondary market the NBP also publishes prices adjusted by a hedonic index, which leave out differences in the quality of flats.
How to read a price report – a checklist
- Offer or transaction? Asking prices are usually higher – according to the NBP on the primary market in Warsaw by about 10%.
- The mean or the median? The average price of a flat is sometimes inflated by penthouses; the median shows the typical unit better.
- What area? The country, voivodeship, city or district – GUS and the NBP measure different territories.
- What market? The primary and secondary markets have different dynamics and a different price level.
- Has the structure changed? Check whether many units in cheaper or dearer locations came in during the period.
- Per m² or per flat? The price per metre and the price of a unit react to different factors (e.g. the area).
- Nominal or real? A rise in prices of a few per cent with similar inflation means stagnation in real terms.
Frequently asked questions
What is better for assessing flat prices – the mean or the median?
For assessing a "typical" flat the median is better, because individual very expensive units do not move it. It is best to look at both – a large difference between them signals extreme values in the data. In our Warsaw offer the average price of a unit is 987 thousand zł, and the median 853 thousand zł.
By how much is the transaction price lower than the asking price?
According to the NBP, in Q2 2026 the average transaction price on the primary market was lower than the asking price by about 9% in Warsaw (16,783 against 18,488 zł/m²) and by about 8% in Wrocław. That is the difference between averages for different sets of flats, not a typical discount in negotiations.
How do you calculate the price per metre of a flat?
Divide the price of the flat by its usable floor area. To compare offers, also add the mandatory extra payments to the developer, e.g. for a parking space or storage unit if they are not included in the price of the unit – the developer must state them separately on its website.
Why do GUS and NBP data on flat prices differ?
GUS publishes a price change index for the country and voivodeships, without prices in zł/m², while the NBP gives average prices per m² for big cities. The two institutions use different data sources, weights and territorial scope, so their results may differ by even a few percentage points.
Is the weighted average price per m² more accurate?
The area-weighted mean shows what the average square metre on the market costs, not the average flat. It is less sensitive to expensive studios but more sensitive to large penthouses – in Wrocław removing one development with large units lowers it by 2%.
Summary
The average price, the median and the weighted mean are three different answers to the question "how much do flats cost". On our data the differences in the price per metre are a few per cent, and in the price of the whole flat even a dozen or so. Before you draw conclusions from a report, check whether it speaks of offers or transactions, of what area and whether the structure of the offer has changed. For your own decisions it is best to compare the prices per m² of similar flats in specific districts – you will find the current offer in the catalogues of new flats in Warsaw and new flats in Wrocław.
Want to know whether the price of the flat you have your eye on is a market price? Get in touch – we will compare it with other developments nearby and help you go through the purchase from a developer. For the buyer most often without a commission – the fee is usually paid by the developer.
Legal status as of September 2026, catalogue data as of 27 September 2026. The calculations based on the TM Invest offer are indicative, concern asking prices in our catalogue and do not describe the whole market; they are not investment advice.
Sources
- NBP, the Real Estate Market Database – flat prices (ceny_mieszkan.xlsx), Q2 2026
- NBP, Information on home prices and the situation on the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in the first quarter of 2026
- GUS, Residential property price indices in the 1st quarter of 2026 (2 July 2026)
- Act on the Protection of the Rights of a Purchaser of a Residential Unit or Single-Family House and on the Developer Guarantee Fund, consolidated text, Journal of Laws 2026 item 880 – art. 19a and 19b
- Geoportal, the Real Estate Price Register (RCN)
- Flat prices: the TM Invest catalogue of developments, as of 27 September 2026 (TM Invest's own calculations)
