A flat as an investment in 2026 – is it worth it, how much you will earn, the risks

Author: Tacjana Masiukiewicz27 September 2026Investing~14 min read

Nowe bloki mieszkalne z balkonami w słoneczny dzień, rośliny na balustradzie

A flat as an investment in 2026 can still pay, but it no longer gives easy profits. After tax, the community charges and a month without a tenant, the net return from the rent alone on a new flat in Warsaw and Wrocław is usually about 3–4% a year. So the result is decided by three sources of profit: rent, price growth and mortgage leverage. Below we calculate the yield on the medians of prices from our offer and the NBP rent rates, and then discuss the risks.

Key facts

The average rent rate according to the NBP (Q1 2026, excluding service charges): 85.1 zł/m² in Warsaw and 67.5 zł/m² in the group of six big cities that includes Wrocław.
Our calculation for new flats bought for cash: a gross yield of 3.8–5.3%, net 2.7–3.8% a year.
Transaction prices of new flats (NBP) rose from Q2 2016 to Q2 2026 by 121% in Warsaw and by 130% in Wrocław, but over the last year Wrocław lost 4.7%.
Income from private letting is taxed by lump-sum tax: 8.5% up to 100,000 zł a year and 12.5% on the excess, with no deduction of costs.
The NBP reference rate is 3.75% (since 5 March 2026). According to the NBP, a rental investment financed 80% by a mortgage was unprofitable in Q1 2026.

Is it worth buying a flat to let in 2026?

It depends on what you compare the flat with and for how long you freeze your money. In its report for Q1 2026 the NBP assesses that the average return from letting a flat bought for cash in the seven largest cities was slightly higher than the interest on bank deposits, but still lower than the return on 10-year treasury bonds. This refers to the rent alone, without transaction costs, renovations and changes in the flat's value.

A flat beats a deposit or bonds mainly when you add its growth in value over the long term. That growth is not certain, however. That is why investing in a flat makes sense for someone who:

plans to hold the property for at least several, and preferably a dozen or so years,
has a financial cushion for vacancies, repairs and a possible rise in instalments,
accepts low liquidity, because selling a flat takes weeks or months, not a few days,
wants to manage the letting themselves or will include a management company in the costs.

You will find a detailed comparison with bonds and deposits in the article A flat or bonds and deposits? (in Polish)

Three sources of profit: rent, price growth and leverage

1. The rent

This is the cash flow you receive every month. According to the NBP, average rent rates in Q1 2026 were 85.1 zł/m² in Warsaw (+3.3% year on year) and 67.5 zł/m² in the group of six cities: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań and Wrocław (+12.0% year on year). The rates do not include service charges or utilities. The same NBP analysis estimates the capitalisation rate, that is annual rent divided by price, at 5.95% in Warsaw and 6.24% in the group of six cities. The payback time is 16 years and 10 months, and 16 years and 8 months, respectively.

2. Growth in the flat's value

Over the last decade it has given investors the most. But it is not a certain or even profit:

Average transaction price per m², primary market	Warsaw	Wrocław
Q2 2016	7,583 zł	6,218 zł
Q2 2021	10,696 zł	8,578 zł
Q2 2025	16,387 zł	15,020 zł
Q2 2026	16,783 zł	14,312 zł
Change over 10 years	+121%	+130%
Change over the last year	+2.4%	−4.7%

Source: NBP, the BaRN database – average transaction prices on the primary market (the file ceny_mieszkan.xlsx). Nominal changes, not adjusted for inflation; TM Invest's own calculation.

Ten years of strong growth does not mean the next ten will be similar. In Q1 2026 the NBP recorded low nominal and negative real changes in home prices, that is prices rose more slowly than inflation. What may happen next we discuss in the article Will home prices fall in 2026 and 2027? (in Polish). Current prices in districts are in the summaries for Warsaw and for Wrocław.

3. Mortgage leverage

A mortgage increases the return on your capital if prices rise, and increases the loss in just the same way when they fall. A simple example without the cost of the loan: you buy a flat for 662 thousand zł, putting in 20% (about 132 thousand zł). A 5% rise in price is about 33 thousand zł, that is 25% of your deposit. A 5% fall takes away the same. On top come the interest, which at the current level of rates often eats the whole rent. The NBP's estimates for Q1 2026 show that the return on equity (ROE, excluding growth in the flat's value) was:

Financing	Warsaw	The group of 6 cities (including Wrocław)
Cash (LTV 0%)	3.5%	3.7%
A 50% loan (LTV 50%)	1.0%	1.5%
An 80% loan (LTV 80%)	−6.4%	−5.3%

Source: NBP, Information on home prices and the situation on the real estate market in Q1 2026, chapter 7. The NBP model: lump-sum tax 8.5%, depreciation 1.5%, occupancy 95%, a zloty loan over 25 years.

So a flat bought on a mortgage can pay only thanks to growth in value or a fall in rates. We show the calculation of instalments and rent at current rates in the article A flat on a mortgage to let (in Polish).

A flat to let – profitability on examples from our offer

We calculated the return from letting for the median prices of studios and 2-room flats according to data from the TM Invest offer, as of 27 September 2026. The medians cover all the available units in our catalogue in both cities. Here are the assumptions – we make them ourselves and state them openly, because your numbers may differ:

a cash purchase, the price from the developer's price list (excluding finishing and notarial costs),
the rent: the NBP rate for Q1 2026 – 85.1 zł/m² in Warsaw; for Wrocław we assume the average of the group of six cities, 67.5 zł/m², because the NBP does not give a separate rate for Wrocław in the report,
one month of vacancy a year (revenue for 11 months),
lump-sum tax of 8.5% on revenue,
property tax of 1.25 zł/m² a year (the Warsaw and Wrocław rate for 2026),
the administrative rent (the community's charge) paid by the owner out of the letting rent: we assume 10 zł/m² a month; the actual amount depends on the community. The tenant pays utilities.

Item	Warsaw, studio	Warsaw, 2 rooms	Wrocław, studio	Wrocław, 2 rooms
Median price in our offer	824,404 zł	755,824 zł	595,638 zł	662,405 zł
Median area	30.4 m²	39.4 m²	32.4 m²	40.8 m²
Monthly rent	2,587 zł	3,353 zł	2,187 zł	2,754 zł
Rent for 12 months	31,044 zł	40,235 zł	26,244 zł	33,048 zł
Gross yield	3.77%	5.32%	4.41%	4.99%
Revenue for 11 months	28,457 zł	36,882 zł	24,057 zł	30,294 zł
Lump-sum tax 8.5%	−2,419 zł	−3,135 zł	−2,045 zł	−2,575 zł
Property tax	−38 zł	−49 zł	−40 zł	−51 zł
Administrative rent (12 months)	−3,648 zł	−4,728 zł	−3,888 zł	−4,896 zł
Net profit a year	22,353 zł	28,970 zł	18,084 zł	22,772 zł
Net yield	2.71%	3.83%	3.04%	3.44%

TM Invest's own calculation. Prices: TM Invest catalogue, as of 27 September 2026. Rent rates: NBP, Q1 2026. Property tax excludes the share of land (usually a few zloty a year).

The Warsaw studio comes out weakest here, but that follows from the make-up of the offer: many studios in our catalogue are in Śródmieście and Wola, where the median exceeds 28 thousand zł/m². In Włochy the median studio is 563,955 zł for 29.4 m² and with the same assumptions gives 5.3% gross and 3.8% net – the same as a 2-room flat. We also assumed the same rate per m² for all areas. In practice small flats are usually let at a higher rate per metre, but we have no hard NBP data on that, so we did not add it. We write more about which works better in the article A studio or 2 rooms to let? (in Polish)

Remember the finishing. A flat in stan deweloperski (the developer's standard) has to be finished and furnished before it earns its first zloty. If for a 2-room flat in Wrocław you add finishing at 2,000 zł/m² (an assumption from the lower part of the range in the article How much flat finishing costs), that is about 81.6 thousand zł, the net yield falls from 3.44% to about 3.06%. You will find more examples for different locations and areas in the article Rental yield in Wrocław and Warsaw (in Polish).

Want to compare the yield of several specific flats from our offer? We will help you choose and buy a flat from a developer – most often without a commission for you, because our fee is usually paid by the developer.

Where to buy an investment flat: Warsaw or Wrocław?

Warsaw has the highest rent rates in the country and strong demand from students and corporate employees. Entry here is expensive, however: the median price in our Warsaw offer is 18,000 zł/m². Wrocław is cheaper (a median of 15,736 zł/m²), but rents are lower there, and prices fell over the last year. These differences blur considerably when you compare specific districts. In Warsaw a cheaper entry is offered by, among others, Białołęka, Ursus and Włochy, and in Wrocław by Fabryczna and Psie Pole. We describe the details, along with the areas that are easiest to let, in the guides: a flat to let in Warsaw and a flat to let in Wrocław (both in Polish). You will find current developments in the catalogue for Warsaw and Wrocław.

The risks of investing in a flat – what calculators do not say

Vacancy and a difficult tenant. Every month without a tenant is about 8% of annual revenue. Arrears and an eviction can cost more. How to protect yourself with the contract is explained in the article Occasional and institutional lease (in Polish).
Renovations and refreshing. Every few years you have to paint and replace appliances and furniture. In its model the NBP assumes depreciation of the building at 1.5% of its value a year.
Taxes. You pay lump-sum tax on revenue, not on profit, so you cannot deduct costs – see tax on rental income. Every year there is also property tax. If you sell the flat before 5 years have passed, counted from the end of the year of acquisition, you will pay 19% PIT on the income – see tax on selling a flat within 5 years (in Polish).
Short-term rental regulations. Since 20 May 2026 the EU Regulation 2024/1028 on short-term rental data has applied. The government's draft of national provisions (including registration of units) is, as of 27 September 2026, at the stage of work in Sejm committees. Details: short-term rental – regulations (in Polish).
Liquidity. You will not sell a flat in a day without losing on the price. Money in property is capital frozen for years.
Interest rates. With a variable-rate mortgage every rate rise raises the instalment, and the rent cannot be raised overnight.

In your own name or through a company? The form of purchase

A private individual letting a flat settles by lump-sum tax and deducts neither costs nor depreciation. A purchase through a business or a company changes the rules: the questions of VAT, costs and the way of taxation arise. This solution makes sense rather with several units than with one. When it pays and what to watch out for we describe in the article Buying a flat through a company (in Polish). Before deciding it is worth consulting an accountant or tax specialist.

Read also:

Condo-hotels and aparthotels – are they worth it (in Polish)
A commercial unit from a developer (in Polish)
How to rent out a flat step by step
Rental management – cost (in Polish)

Frequently asked questions

How much can you earn from renting out a flat?

At the median prices of new flats in our offer and the NBP rent rates from Q1 2026, the gross yield is about 3.8–5.3%, and the net – after lump-sum tax, property tax, the administrative rent and a month of vacancy – about 2.7–3.8% a year. For a 2-room flat in Warsaw that is about 29 thousand zł net a year. On top there may be growth in the flat's value, but it is not certain.

After how many years does a rental flat pay for itself?

According to the NBP's estimates for Q1 2026 the payback time was 16 years and 10 months in Warsaw and 16 years and 8 months in the group of six big cities. It is calculated from the rent alone, before costs. In our example, after costs and tax, the payback time of a new 2-room flat lengthens to about 26 years in Warsaw and about 29 years in Wrocław.

Is a rental flat a better investment than bonds?

In terms of rent alone – usually not. The NBP points out that in Q1 2026 the return from letting bought for cash was lower than from 10-year treasury bonds, though slightly higher than the interest on deposits. A flat may win thanks to growth in value over the long term, but it is less liquid and takes work. You will find a comparison in the article on a flat and bonds (in Polish).

What tax do you pay on renting out a flat?

A private individual pays lump-sum tax on recorded revenue: 8.5% up to 100,000 zł of revenue in the year and 12.5% on the excess. Spouses may settle half each. The tax is not reduced by costs, e.g. renovation or the community charge. The PIT-28 return is filed by 30 April of the following year.

A studio or a 2-room flat – which is better to buy to let?

A studio is cheaper to buy, but its price per m² is sometimes higher, and tenants change more often. A 2-room flat suits couples and flatmates, and in our examples gives a similar or higher yield. Location decides: a cheap studio in a well-connected district can do better than an expensive 2-room flat in the centre.

Summary

A flat as an investment in 2026 is above all long-term capital protection with a moderate rental income, not a quick profit. The rent alone gives today about 3–4% net when bought for cash. The result can be improved by a cheaper location, a well-chosen area and growth in value over the long term. It can be worsened by vacancies, the cost of finishing, an expensive mortgage and a fall in prices. Before you buy, calculate the yield of the specific unit and compare it with safer alternatives.

Looking for an investment flat in Warsaw or Wrocław? We will help you choose a flat from a developer to let – most often without a commission for the buyer, as the fee is usually paid by the developer. If you plan a mortgage, book a consultation with a mortgage expert – we will compare offers from several banks and calculate whether the rent will cover the instalment.

Legal status as of September 2026, market data according to the latest available publications. The calculations are indicative and based on the assumptions described in the article. The article is not an investment recommendation or tax advice – make your decision after analysing your own situation.

A flat as an investment in 2026 – is it worth it, how much you will earn, the risks

Key facts

Is it worth buying a flat to let in 2026?