Flat or Bonds and Deposits? Comparing Returns in 2026
Author: Tacjana MasiukiewiczInvesting~14 min read
Flat or bonds? In September 2026 Polish treasury EDO bonds pay 5,35% in the first year and then inflation plus 2 percentage points. The average new deposit pays about 3%. A flat for rent in Wroclaw brings about 4,5–5% gross from rent, and about 3,4% after tax and costs. On top of that comes the change in its price, which can be positive or negative. Below we compare interest rates, taxes, liquidity and risk, and at the end we calculate what could happen over 5 years to 600 thousand PLN placed in EDO bonds against the same amount invested in a studio from our offer.
Key facts
- Treasury bonds from the September 2026 issue: EDO 5,35% in the 1st year (then inflation + 2,00%), COI 4,75% (then inflation + 1,50%), TOS 4,40% fixed for 3 years.
- The average interest rate on new household deposits in July 2026 was 3,00% (NBP, the National Bank of Poland), the NBP reference rate is 3,75%, and CPI inflation in August 2026 was 3,4% y/y (GUS, Statistics Poland).
- You pay 19% tax on interest from deposits and bonds (the so-called Belka tax, Art. 30a of the Personal Income Tax Act). Private rental income is taxed at a flat rate of 8,5% (12,5% on the excess over 100 thousand PLN).
- According to the NBP, the capitalisation rate (annual rent to price) in the first quarter of 2026 was 6,24% in the group of 6 large cities (including Wroclaw) and 5,95% in Warsaw, but the return on capital after costs and tax when buying for cash is only 3,5–3,7%.
- In our offer a studio in Wroclaw costs from about 335 thousand PLN, the median is 596 thousand PLN (as at 27.09.2026). You can buy bonds from as little as 100 PLN.
What do treasury bonds and deposits pay in September 2026?
Retail treasury bonds are sold every month in new series, and each costs 100 PLN. The interest rate is set by the Ministry of Finance in the issue letter. This table shows the series from September 2026. The October offer may differ, so check current rates before buying.
| Series (September 2026) | Term | Interest rate | Interest payment | Early redemption fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTS1226 | 3 months | 2,00% fixed | at redemption | – |
| ROR0927 | 1 year | 4,00% in the 1st month, then the NBP reference rate | monthly | yes (per the issue letter) |
| DOR0928 | 2 years | 4,15% in the 1st month, then the reference rate + 0,15% | monthly | yes (per the issue letter) |
| TOS0929 | 3 years | 4,40% fixed | at redemption (annual capitalisation) | 1,00 PLN per bond |
| COI0930 | 4 years | 4,75% in the 1st year, then inflation + 1,50% | annually | 2,00 PLN per bond |
| EDO0936 | 10 years | 5,35% in the 1st year, then inflation + 2,00% | at redemption (annual capitalisation) | 3,00 PLN per bond |
Inflation-indexed bonds (EDO and COI) pay, from the second year, the inflation from the latest GUS reading plus a fixed margin. If inflation is negative, it is counted as zero. Thanks to this, your savings grow in real terms by roughly the size of the margin, regardless of what happens to prices. In EDO, interest is added to the principal every year, so for longer saving it is the strongest series.
Deposits pay less today. According to the NBP, the average interest rate on new household deposits in July 2026 was 3,00%. Promotional offers from rankings can be higher, but they usually apply for a few months, up to a set amount, or require "new funds". After 19% tax, 3% leaves about 2,43%, which is less than August inflation (3,4%). In real terms, savings on an average deposit therefore lose value.
How much does a rental flat earn – gross and net yield
Every quarter the NBP estimates the profitability of buying a flat to let. In the first quarter of 2026 the average rental rate was 85,1 PLN/m² in Warsaw and 67,5 PLN/m² in the group of six large cities that includes Wroclaw (excluding service charges and utilities). The capitalisation rate, that is annual rent divided by price, was 5,95% in Warsaw and 6,24% in those six cities. The NBP, however, calculates it from the average transaction price across the primary and secondary markets. New flats in good locations are more expensive, so their gross yield usually comes out lower.
The net result matters more. After deducting costs, the 8,5% flat tax and vacancies, the NBP estimates the return on capital when buying for cash at 3,5% in Warsaw and 3,7% in the six large cities. That is a result comparable with bonds. The difference is that a flat can additionally gain or lose value. How to calculate yield on specific units from the catalogue is shown in the article Rental yield in Wroclaw and Warsaw, and the rules of the flat-rate tax are described in Rental income tax 2026.
The second component of the return, price growth, is not guaranteed. According to the NBP, the average transaction price on the primary market in Wroclaw in the second quarter of 2026 was 4,7% lower than a year earlier, and in Warsaw 2,4% higher. In real terms, after allowing for inflation, prices in large cities fell in the first quarter of 2026. We discuss this more broadly in the article Will flat prices fall in 2026 and 2027?
Treasury bonds or property – a comparison table
| Instrument | Expected return 2026 (gross) | Tax | Liquidity | Risk | Minimum amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank deposit | about 3,0% (NBP average, VII 2026) | 19% on interest | high; breaking a deposit usually means losing the interest | low; BFG guarantee up to the equivalent of 100 000 euro | depends on the bank |
| TOS bonds (3 years) | 4,40% fixed | 19% on interest | good; early redemption for 1 PLN per bond | low; issuer – the State Treasury | 100 PLN |
| COI bonds (4 years) | 4,75% in the 1st year, then inflation + 1,50% | 19% on interest | good; redemption for 2 PLN per bond | low; the return depends on inflation | 100 PLN |
| EDO bonds (10 years) | 5,35% in the 1st year, then inflation + 2,00% | 19% on interest | good; redemption for 3 PLN per bond | low; the return depends on inflation | 100 PLN |
| Rental flat (cash) | about 4,5–5% from gross rent (our example: 4,8%) + price change | flat rate 8,5% / 12,5% on rental income; 19% on income from a sale before 5 years have passed | low; a sale usually takes weeks or months | medium; prices, vacancies, tenants, renovations | from about 335 thousand PLN (a studio in Wroclaw in our offer) + entry costs |
Pay attention to the entry threshold and costs. You can buy and sell bonds online in a few minutes. With a flat you pay the notary's maximum fee and court fees (from a developer, with no PCC – the tax on civil-law transactions), and finishing usually comes on top. We describe all the items in the article Costs of buying a flat from a developer. When you exit the investment, selling costs may arise, and if you sell before 5 years have passed, counted from the end of the year of purchase, also 19% tax on the income.
Looking for a flat that pays for itself? We will help you choose a unit to let from the offer of several dozen developments in Warsaw and Wroclaw and guide you through the purchase – in most cases with no commission for the buyer; the developer usually pays our fee.
Example: 600 thousand PLN in EDO bonds or in a studio in Wroclaw?
We compare two routes for the same amount over 5 years. We state all the assumptions openly, because they determine the result.
Option A – EDO0936 bonds. You buy 6 000 bonds in September 2026. The first year pays 5,35%, the following four years inflation + 2,00%. After 5 years you redeem them early: a fee of 3 PLN per bond and 19% tax on the interest reduced by that fee.
Option B – a completed studio of 29,13 m² for 495 210 PLN in the Apartamenty Krakowska 8 development in Krzyki (based on TM Invest offer data as at 27.09.2026). To the price we add about 2,0 thousand PLN of notary and court costs and 2 200 PLN/m² for finishing and furnishing (about 64,1 thousand PLN, the middle of the range for an average standard in Wroclaw). The total comes to 561,3 thousand PLN. The remaining 38,7 thousand PLN is a reserve on a deposit (3% gross). We calculate rent from the NBP average: 67,5 PLN/m², that is about 1 966 PLN a month. We assume the flat is let for 95% of the time, the 8,5% flat tax and 1 500 PLN a year of owner's costs (property tax, insurance, minor repairs). We do not index the rent.
| Option and scenario | Wealth after 5 years | Profit | Average per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDO, inflation 1,5% a year | about 687 thousand PLN | about 87 thousand PLN | about 2,7% |
| EDO, inflation 2,5% (NBP target) | about 710 thousand PLN | about 110 thousand PLN | about 3,4% |
| EDO, inflation 3,5% a year | about 734 thousand PLN | about 134 thousand PLN | about 4,1% |
| Studio, prices −1% a year | about 610 thousand PLN | about 10 thousand PLN | about 0,3% |
| Studio, prices +2% a year | about 685 thousand PLN | about 85 thousand PLN | about 2,7% |
| Studio, prices +4% a year | about 741 thousand PLN | about 141 thousand PLN | about 4,3% |
What follows from this? Net rent gives about 3,4% a year on the amount invested (19 thousand PLN on 561 thousand PLN), which is roughly what EDO gives at moderate inflation. The advantage of the flat is therefore decided by the growth of its price. If prices rise more slowly than about 2% a year, the bonds come out similar or better, with far less involvement. If they rise faster, the flat wins. Remember the timing too: for a purchase in 2026, a sale free of income tax is possible from 1 January 2032.
A mortgage changes the calculation. With a down payment and a loan, leverage works both ways: it increases the profit from price growth, but according to the NBP, at an LTV of 80%, renting in the first quarter of 2026 was unprofitable (a negative return on capital). We describe the details in the article A mortgage for a buy-to-let flat.
A flat and inflation – what protects savings better?
EDO and COI bonds protect against inflation by definition: from the second year their interest rate rises together with CPI. A flat protects against it indirectly. Rents and property prices in the long run usually follow wages and inflation, but over shorter periods it may be different. NBP data for recent quarters show this, when real prices in large cities fell. A flat does give you something bonds do not: you can live in it or pass it to a child, and you can raise its value through location and standard.
- Choose bonds when access to your money matters, you have less than a few hundred thousand PLN or you do not want to deal with tenants.
- Consider a flat when you think in a horizon of at least 5–10 years, you have a reserve for vacancies and renovations, and you treat letting as part of a larger portfolio. Where to look for units to let, we write in the article A flat as an investment in 2026.
- A combination of both is a common choice: funds for a down payment or finishing can work in short bonds or on a deposit until the purchase.
In our offer – how much a flat to let costs
According to TM Invest offer data as at 27.09.2026, in Wroclaw we have 265 available studios with a median price of 595 638 PLN (32,4 m²) and 738 two-room flats with a median of 662 405 PLN. In Warsaw the median studio is 824 404 PLN, but the cheapest 2-room flats start from about 449 thousand PLN, for example in Białołęka. You will find current units in the catalogues new flats in Wroclaw and new flats in Warsaw. We compare a studio and two rooms in terms of return in the article Studio or 2 rooms to let?
Frequently asked questions
What pays off better in 2026: a flat or bonds?
It depends on how flat prices change. Net rent from a flat bought for cash gives about 3,4–3,7% a year today, similar to EDO bonds at moderate inflation. The flat wins if its price rises by more than about 2% a year. With stagnation or falling prices, bonds do better.
Deposit or flat – which protects better against inflation?
An average deposit does not beat it today. An average of 3,00% gross, that is about 2,43% after tax, is less than the 3,4% inflation of August 2026. Over the long run a flat usually holds its real value, but in the short run there is no such certainty. Indexed EDO and COI bonds protect directly against inflation.
How much tax do you pay on treasury bonds?
19% on interest, in line with Art. 30a of the Personal Income Tax Act. The tax is withheld by the payer when interest is paid or the bonds are redeemed (Art. 41(4) of the Personal Income Tax Act), so you do not settle it yourself. With early redemption the tax is calculated on the interest reduced by the fee.
Can EDO bonds be sold before maturity?
Yes. Early redemption is possible 7 days after purchase, and the money arrives 5 working days after the instruction is placed. For EDO bought from 1 September 2024 the fee is 3 PLN per bond, but no more than the accrued interest, so you do not lose the nominal value.
What is the rental yield of a flat in Wroclaw?
At the NBP average rate of 67,5 PLN/m², a studio for about 495 thousand PLN gives about 4,8% gross a year. After allowing for vacancies, the 8,5% flat tax, owner's costs and the costs of finishing and purchase, about 3,4% net remains. We calculate the result for other units in the article on rental yield.
Where to invest 600 thousand PLN in 2026?
There is no single answer. What counts is your horizon, your need for access to the money and your readiness to deal with letting. In our 5-year example EDO bonds give about 687–734 thousand PLN, and a studio from about 610 to about 741 thousand PLN, depending on prices. Many people split their capital between both solutions.
Summary
In September 2026 treasury bonds (EDO 5,35%, COI 4,75%, TOS 4,40%) clearly beat the average deposit (3,00%). A flat bought for cash gives, from rent alone, a net return similar to bonds. Only price growth, which is not certain, can build an advantage. Bonds are liquid, cheap to hold and available from 100 PLN. A flat requires large capital and time, but gives real wealth and a chance of a higher profit over a longer horizon.
If you are considering buying a flat to let, talk to us. We will show units from our offer with the best ratio of rent to price and help you through the purchase from reservation to handover – in most cases with no commission for the buyer, because the developer usually pays our fee.
Legal position as at September 2026. The bond interest rates relate to the September 2026 issue; the data on deposits and inflation come from the latest NBP and GUS readings. The calculations are indicative and rest on the assumptions made. The article is informational and does not constitute investment recommendation or tax advice.
Sources
- Treasury bonds – series EDO0936 and other issues from September 2026 (obligacjeskarbowe.pl)
- NBP – basic interest rates
- NBP – interest rate statistics (interest on new household deposits, July 2026)
- NBP – Information on housing prices and the situation on the real estate market in the first quarter of 2026 (chapter 7: rental rate of return)
- GUS – Consumer price indices of goods and services in August 2026
- Personal Income Tax Act, consolidated text Dz.U. 2026 item 592 (Art. 10(1)(8), Art. 30a, Art. 41(4))
- Act on the flat-rate income tax on certain revenues, consolidated text Dz.U. 2025 item 843 (Art. 12(1)(4)(a))
- Bank Guarantee Fund – deposit guarantee rules
- Flat prices: TM Invest development catalogue, as at 27.09.2026
