Buy or rent a flat in Poland in 2026? A calculation for Warsaw and Wrocław
Author: Tacjana MasiukiewiczBuying~14 min read
Buy or rent a flat? In 2026 the mortgage instalment on a typical 2-room flat is already very close to the rent – the NBP, in its report for Q1 2026, says outright that the cost of servicing a loan has equalled the cost of renting. What pays off more over a 10-year horizon is therefore decided mainly by how flat prices change and how much you earn on the money you do not put into a down payment. Below we calculate both variants for Warsaw and Wrocław on the medians from our offer – with explicit assumptions that you can replace with your own.
Key facts
- The median price of a 2-room flat in the TM Invest offer: 755 824 zł in Warsaw (39,4 m²) and 662 405 zł in Wrocław (40,8 m²), as of 27.09.2026.
- The mortgage instalment (20% down payment, 6,07%, 30 years) is about 3 652 zł in Warsaw and 3 201 zł in Wrocław; renting such an area at the average NBP rates – about 3 353 zł and 2 754 zł a month.
- Of the instalment, over the first 10 years only about 22% goes on repaying the principal – the rest is interest.
- In our model, buying beats renting after 10 years if flat prices grow on average faster than about 1,9% a year in Warsaw and 2,4% a year in Wrocław.
- With prices standing still, renting while investing the down payment comes out better; with 3% annual growth – buying.
Mortgage instalment vs rent – a monthly comparison
Let us start with what you see on your account every month. The average rent rates according to the NBP in Q1 2026 were 85,1 zł/m² in Warsaw and 67,5 zł/m² in the group of six big cities to which Wrocław belongs. These are rates excluding service charges and utilities – you pay those both as a tenant and as an owner, so in the comparison they cancel out. How much such a service charge is in a new building we explain in the article Service charges in a new block of flats in Poland.
| Item (monthly) | Warsaw, 2 rooms, 39,4 m² | Wrocław, 2 rooms, 40,8 m² |
|---|---|---|
| Price of the flat (the median from the offer) | 755 824 zł | 662 405 zł |
| The loan (80% of the price) | 604 659 zł | 529 924 zł |
| Equal instalment, 6,07%, 30 years | 3 652 zł | 3 201 zł |
| Owner-only costs (property tax, insurance, minor repairs) | about 129 zł | about 129 zł |
| Total – the buying variant | 3 781 zł | 3 330 zł |
| Rent (the NBP rate × floor area) | 3 353 zł | 2 754 zł |
| The difference against buying in year 1 | 428 zł | 576 zł |
Monthly, buying is thus more expensive by a few hundred zloty. Only the "instalment versus rent" comparison is misleading for two reasons. First, part of the instalment is repayment of principal, that is your savings locked in the flat. Second, when buying you must lay out at the start a down payment, purchase costs and finishing – a tenant can invest that money. That is why the right question is: who will have more wealth after 10 years? How the instalment changes at other amounts and terms we show in the article Mortgage instalment – tables (in Polish).
How much money do you need at the start when buying a flat?
In the buying variant we assume a flat ready for handover in developer standard (stan deweloperski), a 20% down payment and notary and court costs at the maximum rates: half of the costs of the developer agreement (Art. 40(2) of the Developer Act), the agreement transferring ownership, the mortgage (¼ of the fee rate), entries in the land and mortgage register (150 zł for the claim split in half with the developer, 100 zł for opening the register, 200 zł each for registering ownership and the mortgage), 19 zł of PCC on the mortgage and about 600 zł for extracts. We describe these items in detail in the guide on the costs of buying an apartment in Poland.
| Expense at the start | Warsaw | Wrocław |
|---|---|---|
| 20% down payment | 151 165 zł | 132 481 zł |
| Notary, court, PCC on the mortgage (maximum rates) | about 5 700 zł | about 5 200 zł |
| Finishing (2 500 / 2 200 zł/m²) | 98 500 zł | 89 760 zł |
| Furniture and appliances (assumption) | 15 000 zł | 15 000 zł |
| Total | about 270 300 zł | about 242 500 zł |
How much finishing costs in different standards we show in the article How much does finishing a flat cost. In the renting variant we assume that exactly the same amount – about 270 thousand zł in Warsaw and 242 thousand zł in Wrocław – is invested by the tenant.
The calculator: buy or rent – the model's assumptions
Both people spend the same amount every month on housing and saving. Whoever pays less in a given month (the instalment with owner costs versus the rent) invests the difference. After 10 years we compare net wealth: in the buying variant it is the value of the flat minus the debt still owed plus the invested surpluses, in the renting variant – the value of the invested capital.
- The loan: 80% of the price, equal instalments, 6,07% throughout (the average interest rate on new housing loans per the NBP, July 2026), 30 years, with no arrangement fees or credit insurance (a simplification).
- Renting: the NBP rate × floor area, rent growth of 3% a year (an assumption; for comparison the NBP reports year-on-year growth in rates of 3,3% in Warsaw and 12,0% in the group of 6 cities).
- Investing: 5% a year before tax, reduced by 19% capital gains tax, that is about 4,05% net. That is a level close to EDO bonds (5,35% in the 1st year, then inflation + 2%) with inflation of about 3%.
- Flat prices: three scenarios – 0%, +3% and −2% a year. The growth applies to the purchase price; finishing and furniture we conservatively treat as a cost with no resale value.
- No sale: we do not deduct the costs of selling the flat. After 10 years from the end of the year of purchase, a sale gives rise to no income tax anyway (Art. 10(1)(8) of the PIT Act).
The result: buying a flat or renting – which pays off after 10 years?
Over 10 years in Warsaw you will repay about 438 thousand zł in instalments, of which interest is about 341 thousand zł and principal – only about 98 thousand zł. In that time a tenant will spend about 461 thousand zł on rent. In Wrocław interest will be about 298 thousand zł, repaid principal about 86 thousand zł and rent in total about 379 thousand zł. Hence the verdict depends on what happens to the price of the flat.
| Price scenario (annual) | Warsaw: wealth when buying | Warsaw: wealth when renting | Wrocław: wealth when buying | Wrocław: wealth when renting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% (prices unchanged) | 269k zł | 421k zł | 223k zł | 398k zł |
| +3% | 529k zł | 421k zł | 451k zł | 398k zł |
| −2% | 131k zł | 421k zł | 102k zł | 398k zł |
| The break-even threshold for buying | about +1,9% a year | about +2,4% a year | ||
An example for Warsaw with prices growing 3% a year: a flat bought for 755 824 zł is worth about 1 016 thousand zł after 10 years. After deducting the 507 thousand zł of the loan still to be repaid and adding about 20 thousand zł of surpluses (in the last years the rent already outgrows the instalment) you have about 529 thousand zł. A tenant who invested 270 thousand zł at the start and added the difference to the instalment has about 421 thousand zł. The advantage of buying: about 108 thousand zł. When prices stand still, though, the tenant is ahead by about 152 thousand zł.
Why is the threshold higher in Wrocław? The instalment is lower there, but the rent is lower relative to the price of the flat, so the monthly difference against buying (576 zł) is larger than in Warsaw (428 zł).
Want to check what instalment comes out in your situation and how much you can borrow? Book a consultation with a mortgage expert – we will compare offers from several banks and calculate the loan for a specific flat.
Which assumptions change the result most?
Below we show how the break-even threshold for buying moves – that is the average annual price growth at which both variants give the same wealth after 10 years – when we change one assumption and leave the rest unchanged.
| Change in the assumption | Threshold – Warsaw | Threshold – Wrocław |
|---|---|---|
| The base model | +1,9% | +2,4% |
| Loan interest 5,07% instead of 6,07% | +1,0% | +1,6% |
| The tenant earns 3% instead of 5% (a deposit) | +1,2% | +1,7% |
| The tenant earns 7% instead of 5% | +2,6% | +3,1% |
| Rent grows 5% a year | +1,3% | +1,9% |
| Rent grows 1% a year | +2,4% | +2,8% |
For context: according to the NBP price database (BaRN), the average transaction price per metre on the primary market rose between Q2 2016 and Q2 2026 from 7 583 to 16 783 zł in Warsaw and from 6 218 to 14 312 zł in Wrocław – on average more than 8% a year. The last year, however, was completely different: +2,4% in Warsaw and −4,7% in Wrocław. Historical data does not settle the future, which is why we show three scenarios, not one. How to read seasonality and the timing of entering the market we write in the article When is the best time to buy a flat (in Polish).
It is also worth remembering that renting while investing works only if the surpluses are really invested and not spent. A comparison of bonds, deposits and a flat as a place for capital you will find in the text A flat or bonds and deposits?, and from the landlord's perspective – in the article Profitability of renting out a flat (both in Polish).
Non-financial factors: stability or flexibility
The calculation does not say everything. In favour of buying: no risk of the lease being terminated, the ability to arrange the flat your own way, a predictable instalment with a fixed rate, and the fact that once the loan is repaid you no longer pay anyone for a roof over your head. A mortgage also works like forced saving – part of the instalment increases your wealth every month.
In favour of renting is flexibility: it is easier to change district or city when you change jobs, you are not responsible for breakdowns and renovations, and your savings are not locked in a single asset. If you plan to move within a few years, buying usually does not hold up – the entry and exit costs will not have time to pay back. If you are buying for the first time and want to organise the whole process, look at the guide First flat (in Polish).
2-room flats in our offer
According to TM Invest offer data, as of 27.09.2026, 859 2-room flats are available in Warsaw (from 449 317 zł, a median of 755 824 zł, 39,4 m²), and in Wrocław 738 (a median of 662 405 zł, 40,8 m²). The median is only a point of reference – in cheaper districts, like Warsaw's Białołęka (a 2-room median of 553 358 zł), the instalment and the amount needed at the start are clearly lower, but the local rents are also sometimes lower, so it is worth repeating the calculation for a specific location. You can check current prices in the catalogue: new flats in Warsaw and new flats in Wrocław.
Frequently asked questions
In 2026, does it pay off more to buy or to rent a flat?
It depends mainly on future flat prices. In our model for a 2-room flat, buying wins after 10 years if prices grow on average faster than about 1,9% a year in Warsaw and 2,4% in Wrocław. With prices standing still, renting combined with investing the down payment is more favourable.
Is the mortgage instalment higher than the rent?
With a 20% down payment and an interest rate of 6,07%, the instalment for the median 2-room flat from our offer is about 3 652 zł in Warsaw and 3 201 zł in Wrocław. Renting a similar area at the average NBP rates costs about 3 353 zł and 2 754 zł, so the instalment is higher by a few hundred zloty a month. Part of the instalment, however, is repayment of principal, which remains yours.
How much principal will I repay in 10 years of a 30-year loan?
Not much – with equal instalments and an interest rate of 6,07%, over the first 10 years you repay about 16% of the loan amount. For a loan of 604 659 zł that is about 98 thousand zł of principal and about 341 thousand zł of interest. Overpayments or a shorter loan term clearly change these proportions.
After how many years does buying a flat start to pay off?
The longer the horizon, the easier it is for the purchase to recoup the entry costs: the notary fee, court fees and finishing. With a planned stay shorter than a few years, renting is usually safer. With a horizon of 10 years or more, what decides is price growth, the loan interest rate and discipline in investing the savings.
Does a tenant pay the service charge?
Usually yes – service charges and utilities are added to the rent, as set in the agreement. That is why in the comparison we treat them as a cost of both variants, and the NBP rates on which we base the calculation do not include these charges. The owner additionally bears, among other things, property tax and repair costs.
Summary
In 2026 the mortgage instalment on a 2-room flat in Warsaw and Wrocław, together with owner costs, is 400–600 zł a month higher than the rent, and over the first 10 years most of the instalment is interest. Buying pays off financially when flat prices grow at a pace of at least about 2–2,5% a year, when you manage to get a lower interest rate, or when you plan to live in one place for a long time. Renting wins when prices stagnate – provided the down payment you saved actually works. We describe the whole purchase process step by step in the guide How to buy a new-build apartment in Poland.
If after the calculation you choose to buy, we will help you find a flat from a developer in your budget – usually with no commission for the buyer, as the fee is typically paid by the developer. When financing with a mortgage, book a consultation with a mortgage expert – we will compare offers from several banks.
Legal status as of September 2026. The calculations are indicative, based on assumptions adopted (growth in prices and rents and the rate of return) and do not constitute investment or tax advice or a loan offer.
Sources
- NBP – Information on flat prices and the situation on the real estate market in Q1 2026 (in Polish) (rent rates, the ratio of loan cost to rent).
- NBP – Residential real estate price database (BaRN) (in Polish) – transaction prices on the primary market.
- NBP – interest rate statistics (MIR) (in Polish) – the interest rate on new housing loans in PLN.
- Treasury bonds EDO0936 (in Polish) – interest in September 2026.
- Regulation on the maximum rates of the notary fee (in Polish) – consolidated text Dz.U. 2024 item 1566 (§ 3, § 6, § 7).
- Act on Court Costs in Civil Cases (in Polish) – consolidated text Dz.U. 2025 item 1228 (Art. 42–44).
- Act on the tax on civil law transactions (in Polish) – consolidated text Dz.U. 2026 item 191 (Art. 7(1)(7)).
- The Developer Act (in Polish) – consolidated text Dz.U. 2026 item 880 (Art. 40(2)).
- Personal Income Tax Act (in Polish) – consolidated text Dz.U. 2026 item 592 (Art. 10(1)(8), Art. 30a).
- Announcement on the upper limits of local tax and charge rates for 2026 (in Polish) – M.P. 2025 item 726.
- Flat prices: TM Invest developments catalogue, as of 27.09.2026.
