Will flat prices fall in 2026 and 2027? A review of NBP, GUS and BIK data
Author: Tacjana MasiukiewiczMarket and prices~9 min read
Will flat prices fall? It is one of the questions we hear most often from buyers. The honest answer is: nobody knows for sure, and no public institution – neither the NBP (National Bank of Poland) nor GUS (Statistics Poland) – publishes a flat price forecast. What we can do is show what the latest data say: how asking and transaction prices have changed, what is happening with interest rates, mortgage demand and the supply of new flats. On that basis it is easier to judge which scenarios are more likely.
Key points
- According to the NBP, in the second quarter of 2026 the average transaction price per m² on the primary market in the 7 largest cities was PLN 14 444 – 0.6% more than a year earlier.
- At the same time asking prices rose faster (+3.1% y/y) – the gap between the price list and the price at which flats actually sell is widening.
- In Wroclaw, primary-market transaction prices have been lower than a year earlier for four quarters (Q II 2026: −4.7% y/y), while in Warsaw they rose by 2.4% y/y.
- The NBP reference rate fell from 5.75% to 3.75% (from 5 March 2026), and demand for mortgages, according to BIK, is rising.
- In its report for the first quarter of 2026 the NBP describes the market as stable in nominal terms, with a price correction in real terms (after taking inflation into account).
Transaction versus asking prices – what the NBP data say
The best public source of flat prices in large cities is the Residential Property Price Database (BaRN) run by the NBP. It contains both asking prices (from listings and price lists) and transaction prices (from contracts actually concluded). For a buyer the latter matter more – they show what people really pay.
| Primary market, PLN/m² | Q II 2025 | Q II 2026 | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw – asking price | 17 293 | 18 488 | +6.9% |
| Warsaw – transaction price | 16 387 | 16 783 | +2.4% |
| Wroclaw – asking price | 15 574 | 15 575 | 0.0% |
| Wroclaw – transaction price | 15 020 | 14 312 | −4.7% |
| 7 cities – transaction price | 14 358 | 14 444 | +0.6% |
| 10 cities – transaction price | 10 705 | 11 037 | +3.1% |
What follows from this? On the primary market in large cities transaction prices stood practically still over the year, and in some cities – like Wroclaw – they fell. At the same time the prices in developers' price lists did not fall, and in Warsaw they clearly rose. A widening gap between the offer and the transaction usually means more room to negotiate: buyers more often get discounts or extras that are not visible in the price list.
It is also worth remembering inflation. In its report on flat prices for the first quarter of 2026 the NBP indicates that, after taking inflation into account, primary-market transaction prices fell y/y by 2.1% in Warsaw and by 2.7% in six other large cities. The authors write of "a further correction of flat prices in real terms with their simultaneous nominal stabilisation".
GUS indicators – the whole of Poland
GUS publishes quarterly price indices for residential units for the whole country and the voivodeships (without a breakdown by city). In Q I 2026 prices of residential units in Poland were 6.0% higher than a year earlier – 6.8% on the primary market and 5.2% on the secondary market. In the Lower Silesia voivodeship the increase was 4.0% y/y, in the Masovian one 6.8% y/y.
The pace of growth is, however, clearly lower than two years ago: in the first quarter of 2024 the annual price increase according to GUS was 18.0%, and in 2025 it fell to 4–7% y/y. The difference between GUS and the NBP comes from methodology – GUS covers the whole country, including smaller towns, where prices are rising from a lower level.
Interest rates and mortgages
Flat prices depend largely on the availability of credit. Since May 2025 the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) has cut the NBP reference rate from 5.75% to 3.75% (the latest cut effective from 5 March 2026). At its meeting on 8–9 September 2026 the RPP left rates unchanged.
| Effective date | NBP reference rate |
|---|---|
| 8 May 2025 | 5.25% |
| 3 July 2025 | 5.00% |
| 4 September 2025 | 4.75% |
| 9 October 2025 | 4.50% |
| 6 November 2025 | 4.25% |
| 4 December 2025 | 4.00% |
| 5 March 2026 | 3.75% |
Lower rates mean lower instalments and higher borrowing capacity, which increases demand. This is visible in the data: according to the NBP, the value of new housing loans in zloty in the first quarter of 2026 was PLN 24.3 billion, 24.7% more than a year earlier. The BIK Housing Loan Demand Index for August 2026 rose by 9.3% y/y, and the average requested loan amount was PLN 525.7 thousand (+7.2% y/y). BIK itself expects lower readings in the following months because of a high-base effect.
We explain how to calculate what loan you can afford at current rates in the article Borrowing capacity 2026.
Supply: many flats on offer, more permits
On the supply side the data point rather to a brake on prices than to a jump:
- according to JLL data cited by the NBP, at the end of the first quarter of 2026 there were about 62.5 thousand flats on offer in the six largest markets – more than a year earlier (59.1 thousand),
- the NBP draws attention to "a large number of unsold flats remaining in developers' offers",
- according to GUS, 132.2 thousand flats were completed in January–August 2026 (+4.5% y/y), construction started on 153.5 thousand (+4.8% y/y), and the number of permits and notifications rose by 14.9% y/y, to 193.3 thousand.
More permits today potentially means more flats on the market in 2–3 years. On the other hand, the NBP notes that developers' profitability remains high, so the pressure to cut price lists is not strong.
Scenarios for 2026 and 2027
We do not give a numerical forecast – no public institution publishes one, and commercial forecasts differ from one another. On the basis of the data above, however, we can describe the factors that will decide prices:
- In favour of stabilisation or rising prices: lower interest rates, growing lending, wage growth and the fact that – as the NBP writes – the cost of servicing a loan has become equal to the cost of renting a flat.
- In favour of falling or stagnating prices: a large number of unsold flats, a growing number of building permits, falls in transaction prices in some cities (e.g. in Wroclaw) and a growing gap between asking and transaction prices.
- Uncertain factors: further RPP decisions, possible new loan support programmes (we describe them in the article Housing programmes 2026) and the economic situation. In its July projection the NBP assumes GDP growth in 2026 in the range of 3.0–4.4% and CPI inflation of 2.4–3.3%.
In practice a nationwide average says little about a specific flat. Prices differ between cities, districts and investments, and in the same district a finished flat may cost something different from a unit under construction.
What does it mean for a buyer?
- Do not wait for the "bottom" if you need a flat to live in. Even when prices fall in real terms, in zloty they may stand still – and you pay rent every month.
- Negotiate. With large supply and a gap between asking and transaction prices, developers more often agree to a discount, a parking space included in the price or a more favourable payment schedule. You will find tips in the article How to negotiate a flat price.
- Check the price history. A developer must publish the price of each unit and the history of its changes on its website, and the data also goes to the dane.gov.pl portal.
- Calculate the instalment at higher rates. If the loan has a variable interest rate, check whether you can bear the instalment also when rates rise.
We show current prices in the two cities where we operate in the summaries: New flat prices in Warsaw 2026 (median in our offer PLN 21 115/m²) and New flat prices in Wroclaw 2026 (median PLN 16 100/m², according to data from the TM Invest offer, as at 26.09.2026).
Read also:
- A flat as an investment in 2026
- A flat or bonds and deposits?
- Flat price forecast 2026–2027
- Ready-to-collect or under-construction flats – prices
Frequently asked questions
Will flat prices fall in 2027?
There is no official flat price forecast for 2027 – the NBP and GUS do not publish such forecasts. The 2026 data show a nominal stabilisation of transaction prices in large cities and a fall in real prices. The direction in 2027 will be decided by, among other things, interest rates, mortgage demand and the number of flats completed.
Will flat prices fall in Warsaw?
In the NBP data for the second quarter of 2026 transaction prices on the Warsaw primary market were 2.4% higher than a year earlier, and asking prices 6.9%. So far no nominal falls are visible, but the gap between the price list and the transaction price is growing, which increases room for negotiation.
Are flat prices in Wroclaw falling?
According to the NBP, the average transaction price on the Wroclaw primary market in the second quarter of 2026 was PLN 14 312/m², 4.7% less than a year earlier. It is the fourth quarter in a row in which prices were lower than a year before. Asking prices stayed at last year's level.
Will interest rate cuts raise flat prices?
Lower rates increase borrowing capacity and demand, which usually supports prices. In 2026 lending is growing, but at the same time developers have many unsold flats on offer, which holds back increases.
Is it better to buy a flat now or wait?
It depends on your situation: if you are buying for yourself and have stable financing, trying to "hit the bottom" rarely pays off. If you are not sure of your borrowing capacity or income, it is better to put them in order first than to buy under pressure.
Summary
In 2026 flat prices in large cities are nominally stable and, in real terms – after taking inflation into account – slightly falling. Growing supply and the gap between asking and transaction prices favour buyers, while lower interest rates and growing lending work in the opposite direction. Instead of waiting for a clear fall, it is better to prepare your financing well and negotiate a specific offer.
Looking for a flat in Warsaw or Wroclaw? We will select an offer within your budget – for primary-market buyers in most cases without commission, because the developer usually pays our fee. You can also browse current investments in our catalogue.
Data as at 26.09.2026. The article is for information only and is not an investment recommendation.
Sources
- NBP, Residential Property Price Database (BaRN) – primary and secondary market, third quarter of 2024 – second quarter of 2026 (file downloaded 26.09.2026).
- NBP, Information on flat prices and the situation on the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in the first quarter of 2026
- GUS, Price indices of residential units in the 1st quarter of 2026
- GUS, Housing construction in January–August 2026 (preliminary data).
- NBP, Key NBP interest rates and RPP communiqué of September 2026 and communiqué of July 2026 (projection).
- BIK, August reading of the BIK Housing Loan Demand Index (8.09.2026).
- Offer data: TM Invest investment catalogue, as at 26.09.2026.
