Flat price forecast 2026–2027 – Warsaw and Wrocław, market data
Author: Tacjana MasiukiewiczMarket and prices~13 min read
An official flat price forecast for 2026–2027 does not exist — NBP and GUS do not publish price predictions, and commercial forecasts differ from one another. But you can check what drives prices: how many flats are being built, how credit demand changes with the NBP rate at 3.75%, how fast construction is getting more expensive and what the structure of developers' offers looks like. In this article we set the latest GUS, NBP and BIK data against our catalogue for Warsaw and Wrocław and describe conditional scenarios — without guessing a single number.
Key points
- Future supply: in January–August 2026 the number of flats with a building permit rose in Poland by 14.9% y/y, and in the Mazowieckie and Dolnośląskie voivodeships by about 16% y/y (GUS, preliminary data).
- Demand: the NBP reference rate is 3.75% (since 5 March 2026), and the value of mortgage enquiries in August 2026 was 9.3% higher than a year earlier (BIK).
- Costs: construction and assembly output prices in August 2026 were 6.2% higher y/y (GUS) — this holds back cuts in price lists.
- In our offer 70% of available flats in Warsaw and 80% in Wrocław are under construction; the median price is PLN 18,000/m² in Warsaw and PLN 15,736/m² in Wrocław (as of 27 September 2026).
- We do not give a single number for 2027 — instead we show what would have to happen for prices to rise, stand still or fall.
Flat price forecast – why is there no single number?
The price of a flat is the result of supply, credit availability, construction costs and buyers' expectations — and each of these forces can change direction within a year, for example after an MPC (Monetary Policy Council) decision. So an honest flat price forecast is more a set of conditions than a single percentage value.
An overview of how prices have changed so far (NBP offer and transaction prices, GUS indices) is in the article Will flat prices fall in 2026 and 2027? (in Polish). Let us only recall the starting point: according to the NBP BaRN database, in Q2 2026 the average transaction price on the primary market was PLN 16,783/m² in Warsaw (+2.4% y/y) and PLN 14,312/m² in Wrocław (−4.7% y/y). Below we focus on what will decide the coming quarters.
Factors driving flat prices – summary
| Factor | Latest reading | Impact on prices |
|---|---|---|
| NBP reference rate | 3.75% (since 5 Mar 2026; earlier 5.75% until May 2025) | up — lower instalments, higher borrowing capacity |
| Credit demand (BIK) | Aug 2026: +9.3% y/y value of enquiries, +7.0% y/y number of applicants | up |
| Building permits (GUS) | Jan–Aug 2026: 193.3k flats, +14.9% y/y | down over a 2–3 year horizon (more supply) |
| Completed flats (GUS) | Jan–Aug 2026: 132.2k, +4.5% y/y | neutral / slightly down |
| Offer in the 6 largest markets (JLL via NBP) | end of Q1 2026: about 62.5k units; sales 12.4k > launches 10.0k | down today, but the offer has stopped growing |
| Construction costs (GUS) | Aug 2026: +6.2% y/y | up — limits room for cuts |
| Gap between offer and transaction price (NBP) | Q2 2026: Warsaw 10.2%, Wrocław 8.8% | room for negotiation |
Supply: how many flats are being built in Mazowieckie and Dolnośląskie?
GUS does not publish monthly data separately for Warsaw and Wrocław, but it does so for voivodeships — a good approximation.
| January–August 2026 | Mazowieckie | change y/y | Dolnośląskie | change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permits and notifications with a design | 35.5k | +16.0% | 15.9k | +16.2% |
| Construction starts | 30.1k | +4.2% | 10.9k | +1.8% |
| Flats put into use | 26.4k | −1.7% | 11.5k | −2.1% |
In both voivodeships slightly fewer flats are being completed in 2026 than a year ago and construction starts are only a little higher, but permits have clearly increased. In practice this means that in the coming quarters the supply of ready flats is not growing, but developers are building up a "stock" of projects they can launch when demand improves.
The second indicator is the offer. According to JLL data cited by NBP, in the six largest markets (including Warsaw and Wrocław) about 62.5k units were on sale at the end of Q1 2026. In that quarter developers sold about 12.4k flats and launched about 10.0k — sales exceeded new projects, so the offer shrank slightly (from about 63.5k at the end of 2025). NBP also notes that the time needed to sell the offer shortened to 5.6 quarters (from 6.3 a year earlier). A large offer still favours buyers, but it has stopped growing.
Flat prices and interest rates – credit demand
Since May 2025 the MPC has cut the reference rate from 5.75% to 3.75%. Lower rates mean lower instalments, and those mean a higher loan amount a bank can grant at the same income. You can see it in the data: according to BIK, in August 2026 7.0% more people applied for a mortgage than a year earlier, and the average requested amount was PLN 525.7k (+7.2% y/y). BIK notes, however, that readings in the coming months will be lower because of the high 2025 base.
Example: how a change in the interest rate changes purchasing power. According to NBP, the average interest rate on new housing loans in zloty in July 2026 was 6.07%. A PLN 600k loan over 25 years in equal instalments is then about PLN 3,890 a month. At a rate 1 percentage point lower the instalment falls to about PLN 3,530, and at a rate 1 pp higher it rises to about PLN 4,270. Turning the calculation around: at the same instalment of about PLN 3,900, a 1 pp lower rate lets you borrow about PLN 660k instead of PLN 600k.
Want to know how much you can really borrow at current rates? Book a consultation with a mortgage expert — we will compare offers from several banks and calculate the instalment for a specific flat.
Construction costs – why developers are reluctant to cut price lists
According to GUS, construction and assembly output prices in August 2026 were 6.2% higher than a year earlier, and prices of specialist works (installations, finishing) 7.0% higher. NBP writes in its report for Q1 2026 that the costs of land, labour and indirect costs kept rising, with no change in material prices. Flats going on sale in 2027 will therefore be built at a higher cost than those from a year ago.
On the other hand, NBP estimates developers' average return on equity from projects in the 7 largest cities at about 21%. Margins therefore give some buffer — so instead of official price-list cuts we more often see discounts, parking-space promotions or more favourable payment schedules. This explains the growing gap between offer and transaction prices.
What does the structure of the offer in Warsaw and Wrocław show?
Our catalogue is not the whole market, but it shows well which flats can be bought today and when they will be completed. According to the TM Invest offer as of 27 September 2026, 2,237 flats in 73 projects are available in Warsaw and 2,114 flats in 43 projects in Wrocław (we count units with "available" status, offer prices including VAT).
| Completion | Warsaw – share of units | Warsaw – PLN/m² (P10 / median / P90) | Wrocław – share of units | Wrocław – PLN/m² (P10 / median / P90) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ready | 30% (673) | 13,750 / 16,208 / 23,650 | 20% (428) | 12,696 / 14,640 / 20,630 |
| 2026 | 19% (430) | 13,615 / 18,000 / 22,210 | 10% (210) | 13,800 / 14,942 / 17,050 |
| 2027 | 39% (865) | 12,870 / 17,850 / 30,477 | 23% (495) | 12,190 / 14,000 / 16,991 |
| 2028 and later | 12% (269) | 19,142 / 26,350 / 28,800 | 46% (981) | 12,195 / 17,464 / 21,485 |
| Total | 2,237 | 13,527 / 18,000 / 28,000 | 2,114 | 12,290 / 15,736 / 21,070 |
Three conclusions from this data:
- Most of the offer is still being built. In Wrocław almost half of the available flats are due in 2028 or later; in Warsaw most units fall in 2027. We collect the list of such projects in the article Flats completed in 2027.
- A later date does not mean cheaper. Flats due in 2028 have a higher median in our offer than ready ones — in Warsaw this is determined by three projects, including Apartamenty Metro Wilanowska in Mokotów, and in Wrocław by projects in the centre such as RiverSide or Altera in Stare Miasto. The differences come mainly from location, not from the date itself. A detailed comparison of prices of ready and under-construction flats is in the article Ready or under-construction flats.
- The price spread is wide. The gap between P10 and P90 is about PLN 14.5k/m² in Warsaw and about PLN 8.8k/m² in Wrocław. An average "forecast for the city" therefore says little about a specific flat — we show district prices in New flat prices in Warsaw 2026 and Flat prices in Wrocław 2026.
Flat price forecast 2027 – conditional scenarios
Instead of a single number we describe what would have to happen for prices to move in a given direction.
- If interest rates fall further and lending keeps its pace — demand will absorb part of the offer, discounts will be smaller, and transaction prices may start catching up with offer prices.
- If rates stay at the current level and developers turn the growing number of permits into new starts — the offer will grow again and transaction prices will rather stand still in nominal terms and fall in real terms (after inflation), as in the first half of 2026.
- If construction costs rise faster than prices, developers will postpone some starts — supply in 2028–2029 will be smaller and new projects will come to market at higher prices.
- If a new loan subsidy programme appears — historically such programmes have boosted demand abruptly. We describe the current state of the programmes in the article Housing programmes 2026 (in Polish).
Example: what a 5% price change means. The median price of a 2-room flat in our Wrocław offer is PLN 16,000/m², at a typical size of about 40 m² — that is about PLN 640k. A 5% price change in either direction is about PLN 32k. For comparison: the difference in the instalment between a 6.07% and a 7.07% rate on a PLN 600k loan is about PLN 380 a month, or about PLN 4.5k a year. A buyer with a mortgage often feels a change in rates more than a few-percent swing in a price list.
Flat price forecast: Warsaw vs Wrocław
The two cities enter 2027 in different situations. In Warsaw transaction prices on the primary market are still rising slightly, and offer prices are rising faster (+6.9% y/y in Q2 2026 according to NBP), so the main question there is the scale of discounts. In Wrocław transaction prices have been falling y/y for several quarters, and in our offer a large share of units is due only in 2028 — here what matters more is how many of these projects developers will sell before construction is completed.
Frequently asked questions
Will flats be cheaper in 2027?
There is no official forecast that would settle this. A large offer and a growing number of building permits argue for stabilising prices; lower interest rates, growing credit demand and construction costs 6.2% higher y/y argue for increases. Nominal falls are more likely in cities where transaction prices are already falling, such as Wrocław.
How do interest rates affect flat prices?
Lower rates reduce the instalment and increase borrowing capacity, so more people can buy a flat and demand grows. For a PLN 600k loan over 25 years, a 1 pp lower rate reduces the instalment by about PLN 360.
What is the flat price forecast for Wrocław?
According to NBP, the average transaction price on the Wrocław primary market in Q2 2026 was 4.7% lower than a year earlier, and in our offer the median is PLN 15,736/m². The further direction will be decided mainly by sales of projects due in 2028, which make up almost half of the flats we have available in this city.
What is the flat price forecast for Warsaw?
In Warsaw, transaction prices on the primary market in Q2 2026 rose by 2.4% y/y and offer prices by 6.9% y/y (NBP). The growing gap between the price list and the transaction means more room to negotiate. In Mazowieckie, building permits in 2026 rose by about 16% y/y, which may increase supply in 2028–2029.
Is it worth waiting to buy for prices to fall?
If you are buying for yourself and have stable financing, waiting for a "bottom" is risky — prices may stand still, and meanwhile you pay rent. It is better to prepare your borrowing capacity and negotiate a specific offer, taking advantage of the fact that discounts are more common today than changes to price lists.
Summary
The 2026 data point clearly neither to a boom nor to a crash. Lower rates, rising credit demand and more expensive construction push up, while a large offer and more and more permits push down. In Warsaw prices are still rising slightly, in Wrocław transaction prices are falling y/y, and in both cities most of our offer is flats under construction due in 2027–2028. It is better to follow the indicators in the table above and compare specific offers than to wait for a single forecast.
Looking for a flat in Warsaw or Wrocław? We will select an offer from the primary market within your budget — most often without a commission for the buyer, because the fee is usually paid by the developer. If you are buying with a mortgage, book a consultation with a mortgage expert — we will compare offers from several banks. You can also browse the projects in the catalogue: Warsaw and Wrocław.
Legal status as of September 2026. Market data according to the latest available NBP, GUS and BIK publications; catalogue data are offer prices as of 27 September 2026. The calculations are indicative, and the article is not a forecast or investment recommendation.
Sources
- GUS, Housing construction in January–August 2026 (in Polish; 21 Sep 2026, preliminary data, chart data by voivodeship).
- GUS, Housing construction in January–August 2025 (in Polish; base for y/y comparisons).
- GUS, Construction and assembly output price indices in August 2026 (in Polish; 18 Sep 2026).
- NBP, Basic NBP interest rates (in Polish) – reference rate 3.75% since 5 Mar 2026.
- NBP, Information on flat prices and the situation on the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in Q1 2026 (in Polish; including JLL data on offer and sales, developers' ROE).
- NBP, Residential Property Price Database (BaRN) (in Polish) – offer and transaction prices, Q2 2026.
- NBP, Interest rate statistics (in Polish) – interest rates on new housing loans in PLN, July 2026.
- BIK, August reading of the BIK Mortgage Demand Index (in Polish; 8 Sep 2026).
- Flat prices: TM Invest project catalogue, as of 27 September 2026.
