When to Buy a Flat in Poland? Seasonality, Developer Discounts and Interest Rates 2026
Author: Tacjana MasiukiewiczBuying~14 min read
When should you buy a flat? The best moment is the one when you have stable financing and find a specific flat at a good price – not a month in the calendar. NBP (National Bank of Poland) data show no clear seasonality in new-flat sales, and a cut in interest rates of 1 percentage point changes the instalment more than a 5% fall in price. Below we compare three perspectives: the construction stage of the development, the calendar and the macro situation, and at the end we calculate what waiting a year for a flat costs in Warsaw and Wroclaw.
Key facts
- In the same district, flats at an earlier construction stage are sometimes cheaper: in Białołęka the median is PLN 13 400/m² for completion in 2027 versus PLN 14 450/m² in completed developments (TM Invest offer, as of 27.09.2026).
- According to JLL data quoted by NBP, sales on the 6 largest markets in successive quarters of 2024–2026 ranged from 9.1 to 12.4 thousand flats and were not systematically higher at the end of the year.
- The NBP reference rate is 3.75% (since 5 March 2026), and the average interest rate on new housing loans in July 2026 was 6.07%.
- With a loan of about PLN 605k over 30 years, a change in the interest rate of 1 pp means about PLN 380–400 of monthly instalment, and a 5% change in the flat price – about PLN 180.
- A year's rent of a 2-room flat (39.4 m²) in Warsaw is about PLN 40k – the same as a 5% change in the price of such a flat.
The best moment to buy a flat in 2026 – what does it depend on?
The question “when to buy a flat” has three layers. The first is the stage of the development: you buy at the start of sales, during construction, or a completed unit. The second is the calendar: whether the end of the year or quarter gives better prices. The third is the macro situation: interest rates, housing supply and the direction of prices. You have the most influence on the first, none on the third. So before you start trying to “catch the bottom”, work out when you need the keys and how much you can borrow – we write about this in the guide First flat – a guide for first-time buyers, and the whole process is described in the article How to buy a flat from a developer step by step.
Development stage: pre-sale, construction or a completed flat?
On the primary market, mostly flats that do not exist yet are sold. According to JLL (data quoted by NBP), at the end of the first quarter of 2026 there were about 62.5 thousand units in the offer on the 6 largest markets, of which only about 12.6 thousand were described as ready to live in. We checked how the price per metre depends on the completion date in our catalogue. We compare the same districts, because the average for a whole city mixes cheap and expensive locations.
| District | Completed | Completion 2026 | Completion 2027 | Completion 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw, Białołęka | PLN 14 450 (273) | PLN 13 792 (97) | PLN 13 400 (239) | – |
| Warsaw, Praga-Południe | PLN 18 874 (31) | PLN 18 300 (160) | PLN 18 800 (77) | – |
| Warsaw, Mokotów | PLN 19 442 (91) | PLN 22 000 (91) | PLN 18 250 (71) | PLN 28 000 (195) |
| Wroclaw, Fabryczna | PLN 13 500 (34) | PLN 14 022 (80) | PLN 12 790 (191) | PLN 12 195 (42) |
| Wroclaw, Krzyki | PLN 18 540 (105) | – | PLN 14 200 (94) | PLN 16 200 (557) |
| Wroclaw, Stare Miasto | PLN 16 013 (164) | – | PLN 15 439 (122) | PLN 21 100 (249) |
The conclusion is not clear-cut, and that is the most important information. In Białołęka, the further away the keys, the lower the price per metre, and in Fabryczna the cheapest are developments with completion in 2027–2028 – the classic “early-purchase premium”. In Mokotów and Stare Miasto the most expensive are developments with completion in 2028: these are new projects in better locations (including near the metro), priced according to today's cost of land and construction. So compare specific flats of a similar standard, not the general slogan “it is cheaper at the hole-in-the-ground stage”. You will find a detailed comparison in the article Ready-to-collect or under-construction flats – price differences.
Buying a flat at the hole-in-the-ground stage – when does it pay off?
An early purchase makes sense when you are not paying high rent today, when you care about choosing the floor and layout, or when you want to make tenant changes. The price is part of the developer contract (umowa deweloperska) (art. 35 sec. 1 point 2 of the Developer Act), but check in the prospectus whether the developer provides for price indexation. Your payments go to an escrow account for housing (mieszkaniowy rachunek powierniczy) and are released to the developer after successive stages of construction are completed (art. 8) – more in the article Escrow account and the DFG guarantee fund. If you need time to gather the money, ask about a 10/90 schedule – we describe it in the text 10/90 flats and payment schedules. The downside: you pay rent until handover, and the date may slip.
When do developers give discounts? End of the year, end of the quarter and the last units
A popular piece of advice goes: “buy in December, developers are closing their plan”. The sales data do not confirm this as a rule. NBP publishes quarterly JLL data on the number of flats sold on the 6 largest markets (Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, the Tri-City, Warsaw, Wroclaw):
| Quarter | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First quarter | 11 026 | 9 066 | 12 394 |
| Second quarter | 9 842 | 10 040 | – |
| Third quarter | 9 166 | 10 847 | – |
| Fourth quarter | 9 615 | 11 274 | – |
In 2024 the most flats were sold in the first quarter, in 2025 – in the fourth, and in 2026 again in the first quarter. Sales followed interest rates and credit availability rather than the time of year. This does not mean the calendar does not matter at all. Some developers settle sales plans quarterly and annually, so towards the end of a period there is sometimes more flexibility in the conversation – but there are no public data measuring this, so treat it as an opportunity to negotiate, not a sure discount.
More reliable moments for a discount are: the last units in a completed development (in our offer, a completed development has on average about 18 free flats left), the start of sales of a new phase and a period when there are many competing projects in the area. You can check the price in its history: since 11 July 2025 a developer must publish on its website the price per metre of each unit and every change of it with a date (art. 19a of the Developer Act), and the data go to the dane.gov.pl portal (art. 19b). If the price in the offer differs from the one on the website, you can demand a contract at the price more favourable to you (art. 19a sec. 6). How to talk about a discount, a parking space or a storage room included in the price, we suggest in the guide How to negotiate the price of a flat.
Want to know which developments currently leave room for negotiation? We will help you choose a flat and talk to the developer – in most cases no commission for the buyer; the developer usually pays our fee.
Interest rates: should you wait for cuts?
Since May 2025 the Monetary Policy Council has cut the reference rate from 5.75% to 3.75% (the last change effective 5 March 2026). The average interest rate on new zloty housing loans was 6.07% in July 2026 (NBP). See what a change in the interest rate means for the median price of a 2-room flat in our Warsaw offer – PLN 755 824, with a 20% deposit:
| Interest rate | Instalment (loan PLN 604 659, 30 years) | Difference vs 6.07% |
|---|---|---|
| 5.07% | PLN 3 272 | −PLN 380 |
| 6.07% | PLN 3 652 | – |
| 7.07% | PLN 4 051 | +PLN 399 |
| 6.07%, price lower by 5% (loan PLN 574 426) | PLN 3 470 | −PLN 182 |
A fall in the interest rate of 1 pp lowers the instalment roughly twice as much as a 5% price cut. But waiting for lower rates has two catches. First, cheaper credit raises the borrowing capacity of all buyers, and that usually supports prices. Second, you do not have to wait for cuts before buying: with a variable rate, a fall in the reference rate (today WIBOR) will feed into the instalment after the next interest rate update, and a fixed-rate loan can be refinanced later. First check how much you can borrow today – the article Borrowing capacity 2026 will help.
On the supply side the data point rather to stabilisation. According to GUS (Statistics Poland), in January–August 2026 permits were issued or notifications accepted for the construction of 193.3 thousand flats (+14.9% y/y), and construction started on 153.5 thousand (+4.8% y/y). NBP describes the market as stable in nominal terms, with a real correction of prices. Nobody publishes an official price forecast – you will find an overview of the data in the articles Flat price forecast 2026–2027 and Will flat prices fall?
Buy now or wait? A one-year calculation
Let us calculate what postponing the purchase by 12 months costs if you rent a similar flat in the meantime. We take the median 2-room flat from our offer: in Warsaw PLN 755 824 and 39.4 m², in Wroclaw PLN 662 405 and 40.8 m². We calculate rent at the average NBP rates for the first quarter of 2026: PLN 85.1/m² in Warsaw and PLN 67.5/m² for six large cities (NBP gives no separate rate for Wroclaw). The money that is waiting sits on a deposit – 3.00% gross, i.e. about 2.43% after 19% tax (average interest on new deposits, July 2026).
| Item (12 months) | Warsaw, 2 rooms | Wroclaw, 2 rooms |
|---|---|---|
| Rent for a year | PLN 40 235 | PLN 33 048 |
| You buy with a loan (80%, 6.07%, 30 years): interest you will not pay while waiting | PLN 36 501 | PLN 31 990 |
| Deposit interest on the down payment (20%) | PLN 3 673 | PLN 3 219 |
| Cost of waiting – buyer with a loan | about PLN 60 | about −PLN 2 200 |
| You buy with cash: deposit interest on the whole amount | PLN 18 367 | PLN 16 096 |
| Cost of waiting – cash buyer | PLN 21 868 | PLN 16 952 |
| Change in flat price of ±5% | ±PLN 37 791 | ±PLN 33 120 |
What follows from this? When buying with a loan, the rent and the loan interest are today at a similar level – NBP points out that the cost of servicing a loan has equalled the cost of renting. A year of waiting is therefore in practice a bet on price and rates: if the flat gets 5% more expensive, you will lose about PLN 38k in Warsaw, and if it gets cheaper – you will gain as much. A cash buyer pays more for waiting: in Warsaw it pays off only when the price falls by about 2.9%, and in Wroclaw by about 2.6%. We show the “own or rent” calculation in more detail in the article Buy or rent a flat?
When to buy a flat – depending on your situation
| Your situation | When to buy | At what stage |
|---|---|---|
| You rent and have borrowing capacity | when you find a flat within budget – waiting does not lower costs | completed or with completion within a few months |
| You live with family, rent-free | you can buy earlier and wait for the keys | under construction, completion 2027–2028 |
| You are saving a deposit | after saving the deposit and checking your borrowing capacity | under construction, payment schedule spread over stages |
| You buy with cash | when you come across a discount or a good “last unit” – time works against you more slowly | completed (last units) or start of a phase |
| Uncertain income or changing jobs | after your income stabilises | – |
| You buy to let | when the return works at the current interest rate | completed – income straight away |
You will find current flats at various construction stages in the catalogues new flats in Warsaw and new flats in Wroclaw, and the cheapest locations from the table above on the pages Białołęka and Fabryczna.
Frequently asked questions
Which month is best for buying a flat?
There is no such month. The quarterly JLL data published by NBP do not show new-flat sales regularly rising or falling in one season. At the end of a quarter or year a developer may be more willing to negotiate, but the stage of the development and the number of unsold units matter more.
Is it worth buying a flat at the hole-in-the-ground stage?
Often yes, but not always. In our offer in Białołęka flats with completion in 2027 are about 7% cheaper per metre than completed ones, while in Mokotów new projects with completion in 2028 are the most expensive. Add to the price also the rent paid until handover.
Buy a flat now or wait for prices to fall?
If you buy with a loan and you rent, a year of waiting costs little, but it is a bet on price: for a flat costing PLN 756k every 5% is about PLN 38k. Waiting makes sense when you do not yet have a deposit or stable income, not when you count solely on prices falling.
Is it worth delaying a flat purchase until interest rates are cut?
Usually not. With a variable rate, a rate cut will lower the instalment after the purchase anyway, and a fixed-rate loan can be refinanced later. Lower rates do, however, increase demand, which may push up flat prices.
How can I check whether a developer has really cut the price?
Since 11 July 2025 a developer must publish on its website the price per metre of each unit together with the history of changes and dates. The data are also passed daily to the dane.gov.pl portal, so you can compare the “promotional” price with the earlier one.
Summary
The best moment to buy a flat is set by your situation, not the calendar. The data do not confirm a “promotion season”, lower interest rates can be used later through a variable rate or refinancing, and with a loan a year of waiting is mainly a bet on price. Realistically you can gain from the stage of the development (an earlier completion date in cheaper districts, last units in completed buildings) and from negotiations based on price history.
We will help you compare completed and under-construction flats in Warsaw and Wroclaw and choose a good moment to reserve – get help buying a flat from a developer, in most cases with no commission for the buyer; the developer usually pays our fee. If you buy with a loan, book a consultation with a mortgage expert – we will compare offers from several banks and check whether to choose a fixed or variable interest rate.
Legal status as of September 2026. Prices come from the TM Invest offer (as of 27.09.2026) and are offer prices. The calculations are indicative and do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.
Sources
- NBP – Information on housing prices and the situation on the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in the first quarter of 2026 (table 1 – JLL data, rental rates) (in Polish).
- NBP – basic interest rates (reference rate 3.75% since 5.03.2026).
- NBP – MIR interest rate statistics (new housing loans and deposits, July 2026).
- GUS – Housing construction in January–August 2026 (preliminary data) (in Polish).
- Act on the protection of the rights of the buyer of a residential unit or single-family house and on the Developer Guarantee Fund – consolidated text, Dz.U. 2026 item 880 (art. 8, art. 19a, art. 19b, art. 35).
- Personal Income Tax Act – consolidated text, Dz.U. 2026 item 592 (art. 30a – 19% on interest).
- Flat prices: TM Invest development catalogue, as of 27.09.2026.
